By: Zac Stackell
The landscape of New York City luxury real estate is undergoing a significant transformation. As we look at the data from Q1 2026, a compelling narrative is emerging in the ultra-high-end segment. While many sectors of the market have seen a cooling in demand, the "hidden market"—properties priced over $10M—is experiencing a surprising surge in activity, much of which is happening away from public listings.
The Divergence in the Luxury Segment
According to the latest market report from the Silverstein Stackell Team, the broader residential market has seen a 11.2% year-over-year decline in signed contracts. However, when we look at the "Over $10M" price bracket, the story is entirely different. Contracts for residential sales in this category have jumped by 30.7% compared to Q1 2025.
This trend is even more pronounced in the condo market, where signed contracts for units over $10M surged by a staggering 48.1% year-over-year. This occurs even as the overall condo market saw a 12.3% decrease in total contract volume.
Why the Shift to Off-Market?
In a climate where the median "Days on Market" (DOM) for condos has increased to 105 days, ultra-luxury sellers are increasingly opting for discretion. Off-market or "pocket" listings allow high-net-worth individuals to test premium price points without the public stigma of a high DOM if the property doesn't sell immediately.
The data suggests that despite lower contract volumes overall, there is a "sustained buyer interest" in top-tier assets. For example, median condo sale prices actually rose from $1.12M to nearly $1.25M, indicating that when quality inventory hits the market—publicly or privately—it still commands high valuations.
Navigating the 2026 Market
For buyers, the challenge is clear: the best inventory in the $5M to $10M+ range is becoming increasingly invisible. For sellers, the strategy is about precision. With the market showing "price resistance" in lower tiers , the ultra-luxury segment remains a bright spot of "strong valuation retention"
As the Silverstein Stackell Team, we specialize in uncovering these hidden opportunities. Whether you are looking for an off-market townhouse or a private condo sale, understanding these Q1 2026 shifts is the key to a successful transaction in the world's most competitive real estate market.
